Fixed Income Weekly (November 28, 2016)

 

Macro & politics update

  • On results of the 18th EU-Ukraine Summit in Brussels on November 24, 2016, the European Commission has confirmed the next components of an overall support package to foster accountable and transparent governance in Ukraine in a total volume of EUR 300 mn
  • Industrial production grew by 0.8% y/y in October, expanding however by 1.6% y/y if taking account of the seasonal factor. Mining output contracted by 1.9% y/y during the month, Manufacturing production increased by 1.3% y/y, Energy generation and distribution grew by 3.7% y/y
  • On November 23, 2016, the Ukrainian government has repelled 367 different regulatory rulings weighing upon businesses

Fixed Income Weekly (November 14, 2016)

 

Macro & politics update

  • On November 11, 2016, Fitch Ratings upgraded Ukraine's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs), the issue ratings on Ukraine's long-term senior unsecured foreign- and local-currency bonds to 'B-' from 'CCC'.
  • Ukraine’s foreign reserves declined by 0.5% m/m (or by USD 74 mn) in October 2016 and amounted to USD 15.5 bn by November 1, 2016.
  • Consumer prices grew by 2.8% m/m in Ukraine in October. Consumer prices grew by 9.4% ytd in January-October. In annual terms inflation in October accelerated to 12.4% y/y.
  • On November 11, 2016, the Ukrainian transport Minister Volodymyr Omelian and the EIB Vice-President Vazil Hodak signed an agreement about the extension of EUR 200 mn loan to Ukraine in the framework of the EIB Urban Public Transport Financing program.

Fixed Income Weekly (November 07, 2016)

 

Macro & politics update

  • Notwithstanding the one digit inflation environment which unfolded over the latest six months, the NBU sees inflation to be in line with its earlier inflation target of 12% eop, as well as its medium term 8% eop in 2017, and 6% eop in 2018. The NBU keeps its GDP growth forecast for 2016 unchanged at 1.1%, while slightly downgrading the expectations for 2017 and 2018 to 2.5% and 3.5% respectively.

Fixed Income Weekly (October 10, 2016)

  • On October 3, 2016, the IMF and the Government of Ukraine disclosed the updated memorandum documents, containing the terms of the cooperation between the parties. The IMF projects a real GDP growth of 1.5% in 2016, a slight picking of inflation up to around 13% by end of 2016, the current account at 1.5% of GDP, and gross reserves at USD 16.8 bn.
  • Ukraine's foreign reserves increased by 10.5% m/m in September, and amounted to USD 15.6 bn by October 1, 2016
  • Consumer prices increased by 1.8% m/m (7.9% y/y) in September, 2016, after falling by a monthly average of 1.2 % m/m over the three previous summer months
  • On October 6, 2016, the Ukrainian Parliament extended the moratorium on farmland sales at least up to January of 2018, referring to lack of necessary legislative provision for a full-fledged land market.

ESCP Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly August 15, 2016

Eurobonds overview

Over the last week, prices of Ukraine’s short-term sovereign Eurobonds fell by an average of 0.3 cents, while long-term sovereign Eurobonds appreciated by an average of 0.35 cents. The short-term Ukraine-2019 and Ukraine-2020 issues were down by 0.45 and 0.35 cents respectively. Prices on Ukraine-2021 and Ukraine-2022 fell by 0.15 cents. Ukraine-2023 gained 0.15 cents, while Ukraine-2024 added 0.1 cents. Ukraine-2025, Ukraine-2026 and Ukraine-2027 all added 0.35 cents. On average, short-term issues (due in 2019-2024) traded with a yield of 9.0%, while long-term issues (due in 2025-2027) traded with a yield of 8.75%.

Among our top picks, indications on Ukrlandfarming-19 fell by 0.6 cents, while indications on Avangard-18 rose by 10.3 cents, albeit with no real trades going through. Quotes on Ukrainian Railways-2021 slid by 1.2 cents, while indications on Ferrexpo-2019 improved by 8.8 on the back of announced solid results. Quotes on Privatbank-18 improved by 5.2 cents, while Privatbank-21 added 13 cents.