Ukraine Markets Daily (November 14, 2017)

Market news

  • The IMF reviewed its forecasts of main macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine

Market comment

The UX index remained unchanged yesterday while the PFTS index was up by 0.2% (in UAH terms). The WIG-Ukraine index increased by 0.9%. On the interbank exchange market, the USD/UAH remained almost unchanged at UAH 26.48 (mid price), according to Thomson Reuters. The official exchange rate reported by the NBU was UAH 26.52

 

The IMF reviewed its forecasts of main macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine

In the Regional Economic Outlook report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organization provided its forecasts of main macroeconomic indicators for countries of European region. The estimations were renewed since their last introduction in April 2017. As for Ukraine, the IMF’s GDP growth forecasts remained unchanged at the level of 2.0%, 3.2% and 3.5% for years 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively, while the inflation outlook worsened for these years by 1.3%, 0.4% and 0.5% to 12.8%, 10.0% and 7.0% correspondingly. In addition, the IMF provided its own review of reforms to the rule of law in Ukraine. The Fund highlights Ukraine as a country with the corruption level, which is higher than in other countries of the European Region. The IMF recognizes the existence of the reformation process and even its success in some spheres, but cannot deny that the whole process is moving too slow.

Our view:

Just like the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) the IMF is less optimistic than the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in terms of GDP growth in 2017. The same situation is with the inflation forecasts – for now, IMF’s expectations for the inflation level in Ukraine for 2017 is exceeding the NBU’s projection by 0.6%. This deviation is explained by the significant growth of the nominal salary during this year.

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