Ukraine Markets Daily (November 09, 2017)

Market news

  • Inflation slowed down to 1.2% m/m in October 2017

Market comment

The UX index increased by 1.1% yesterday and the PFTS index was up by 0.4% (in UAH terms). The WIG-Ukraine index decreased by 1.3%. On the interbank exchange market, the USD/UAH was down by 0.3% to UAH 26.63 (mid price), according to Thomson Reuters. The official exchange rate reported by the NBU was UAH 26.75

 

Inflation slowed down to 1.2% m/m in October 2017

Consumer prices slowed down to 1.2% m/m in October 2017, compared with 2.0% m/m inflation in September, according to the State Statistics Service. Food prices increased by 1.1% m/m (+2.0% m/m in September 2017), of shoes and clothes by 2.4% m/m (+8.9% m/m) and of transportation services by 2.4% m/m (+1.5 m/m). In addition, prices of utilities grew up by 0.5% m/m (+0.4% m/m). Related to October 2016, the growth in consumer prices slowed down to 14.6% y/y (from 16.4% y/y in September 2017), with food prices growing by 18.0% y/y (+18.8% y/y), durable goods by 2.5% y/y (+2.5% y/y), transportation goods and services by 14.4% y/y (+12.6% y/y), while utilities price growth slowed down to 15.2% y/y from 23.2% y/y increase in September 2017. Growth in core inflation decreased to 1.2% m/m (+8.1% y/y) in October, up from 1.9% m/m (7.7% y/y) in September

Our view:

The consumer prices growth in October slowed down as a result of decrease in prices growth rates of food products, especially meat and meat products (+0.8% m/m, compared to +3.4% m/m in September) and eggs (+14.9% m/m, compared to 31.0% m/m in September). In addition, due to more stable Ukrainian Hryvnia exchange rates, prices on imported groups of products such as shoes and clothes and durable goods also slowed down their growth. According the NBU’s new inflation forecast made by the NBU, the consumer price growth rate will not exceed 12.2%, which is more probable than the previous projection of 9.1%

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