Ukraine Markets Daily (January 10, 2018)

Market news

  • Consumer prices’ growth accelerated to 1.0% m/m in December, resulting in a 13.7% inflation during 2017

Market comment

The UX index increased by 1.0% yesterday and the PFTS index was up by 0.6% (in UAH terms). The WIG-Ukraine index increased by 0.9%. On the interbank exchange market, the USD/UAH was up by 0.1% to UAH 28.22 (mid price), according to Thomson Reuters. The official exchange rate reported by the NBU was UAH 28.20


Consumer prices’ growth accelerated to 1.0% m/m in December, resulting in a 13.7% inflation during 20177

Consumer prices growth accelerated to 1.0% m/m in December 2017, compared with a 0.9% m/m inflation in November, according to the State Statistics Service. Food prices growth increased to 1.5% m/m (+0.9% m/m in November 2017), while the transportation services’ prices growth slowed down to 1.8% m/m (+2.0% m/m) and utilities prices growth to 0.3% m/m (+0.7% m/m). Related to December 2016, the consumer prices growth accelerated to 13.7% y/y (from 13.6% y/y in November 2017). Particularly, growth of food prices slowed down to 17.7% y/y (+17.9% y/y), while the utilities prices increased by 10.6% y/y (+10.3% y/y) and transportation services’ prices - by 16.7% y/y (+15.4% y/y). Growth in core inflation decreased to 0.8% m/m (+9.5% y/y) in December, down from 1.0% m/m (8.6% y/y) in November.

Our view:

In December 2017 consumer prices level was affected by the growth of food prices, especially of milk (+4.0% m/m), eggs (+6.8% m/m) and vegetables (+7.1% m/m). In addition, Ukrainian Hryvnia devaluation in combination with global oil prices growth resulted in a fuel prices growth during December. Despite all attempts of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to restrict the consumer prices’ growth, particularly through the key policy rate increase by 2% since the end of October 2017 – from 12.5% to 14.5%, the inflation level for 2017 exceeded the NBU’s latest forecast of 12.2% by 1.5 p.p.


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Kind regards

Research Team