Ukraine Markets Daily (December 18, 2017)

Market news

  • In October 2017 export grew by 1.1% m/m and import – by 3.4% m/m

Market comment

The UX index remained unchanged on Friday and the PFTS index was up by 0.2% (in UAH terms). The WIG-Ukraine index decreased by 0.8%. On the interbank exchange market, the USD/UAH was up by 0.9% to UAH to 27.66 (mid price), according to Thomson Reuters. The official exchange rate reported by the NBU was UAH 27.41.


In October 2017 export grew by 1.1% m/m and import – by 3.4% m/m

As reported by State Statistics Service of Ukraine, for ten months of 2017 export increased to USD 35.2 bn (+20.9% y/y) and import grew to USD 39.8 bn (+27.4% y/y), resulting in the negative trading balance increase to USD 4.6 bn. The export coverage ratio was 0.88 (-5.4% y/y). During October export volume increased by USD 41 mn (+1.1% m/m) to USD 3,856 mn. In particular, export of production of animal and vegetable oils increased by USD 166 mn (+62.7% m/m) to USD 433 mn, of metal and metal products by USD 60 mn (+7.3% m/m) to USD 877 mn and of machines and equipment by USD 37 mn (+10.5% m/m) to USD 386 mn. Meanwhile, export of vegetable products decreased by USD 176 mn (-17.6% m/m) to USD 824 mn. For the same month import volumes grew by USD 149 mn (+3.4% m/m) to USD 4,557 mn, as a result of import volume growth of machines and equipment by USD 65 mn (+7.6% m/m) to USD 909 mn, of chemical products by USD 63 mn (+12.1% m/m) to USD 584 mn and of polymer materials and plastics products by USD 18 mn (+5.9% m/m) to USD 316 mn. At this time, import volumes of transportation vehicles decreased by USD 21 mn (-5.5% m/m) to USD 367 mn and of mineral products – by USD 19 mn (-1.6% m/m) to USD 1,140 mn.

Our view:

The change in exports volume within two key categories, namely vegetable products and vegetable and animal oils was caused by seasonal factors, the most important of which was the completion of the harvesting period. During the month, the surplus of grain crops was not exported, but processed, which increased the export of vegetable oil. Reduction of fertilizers’ (-12.3% m/m) and fuel’s s (-2.2% m/m) imports can also be connected with some seasonal changes. At the same time, the volume of machinery and equipment imports continued to grow, mainly due to increased imports of nuclear reactors and machines (+13.7% m/m).


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Kind regards

Research Team