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Fixed Income Weekly (November 28, 2016)


Macro & politics update

  • On results of the 18th EU-Ukraine Summit in Brussels on November 24, 2016, the European Commission has confirmed the next components of an overall support package to foster accountable and transparent governance in Ukraine in a total volume of EUR 300 mn
  • Industrial production grew by 0.8% y/y in October, expanding however by 1.6% y/y if taking account of the seasonal factor. Mining output contracted by 1.9% y/y during the month, Manufacturing production increased by 1.3% y/y, Energy generation and distribution grew by 3.7% y/y
  • On November 23, 2016, the Ukrainian government has repelled 367 different regulatory rulings weighing upon businesses
Read more: Fixed Income Weekly (November 28, 2016)

Fixed Income Weekly (November 14, 2016)


Macro & politics update

  • On November 11, 2016, Fitch Ratings upgraded Ukraine's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs), the issue ratings on Ukraine's long-term senior unsecured foreign- and local-currency bonds to 'B-' from 'CCC'.
  • Ukraine’s foreign reserves declined by 0.5% m/m (or by USD 74 mn) in October 2016 and amounted to USD 15.5 bn by November 1, 2016.
  • Consumer prices grew by 2.8% m/m in Ukraine in October. Consumer prices grew by 9.4% ytd in January-October. In annual terms inflation in October accelerated to 12.4% y/y.
  • On November 11, 2016, the Ukrainian transport Minister Volodymyr Omelian and the EIB Vice-President Vazil Hodak signed an agreement about the extension of EUR 200 mn loan to Ukraine in the framework of the EIB Urban Public Transport Financing program.
Read more: Fixed Income Weekly (November 14, 2016)

Fixed Income Weekly (November 07, 2016)


Macro & politics update

  • Notwithstanding the one digit inflation environment which unfolded over the latest six months, the NBU sees inflation to be in line with its earlier inflation target of 12% eop, as well as its medium term 8% eop in 2017, and 6% eop in 2018. The NBU keeps its GDP growth forecast for 2016 unchanged at 1.1%, while slightly downgrading the expectations for 2017 and 2018 to 2.5% and 3.5% respectively.
Read more: Fixed Income Weekly (November 07, 2016)

Fixed Income Weekly (October 10, 2016)

  • On October 3, 2016, the IMF and the Government of Ukraine disclosed the updated memorandum documents, containing the terms of the cooperation between the parties. The IMF projects a real GDP growth of 1.5% in 2016, a slight picking of inflation up to around 13% by end of 2016, the current account at 1.5% of GDP, and gross reserves at USD 16.8 bn.
  • Ukraine's foreign reserves increased by 10.5% m/m in September, and amounted to USD 15.6 bn by October 1, 2016
  • Consumer prices increased by 1.8% m/m (7.9% y/y) in September, 2016, after falling by a monthly average of 1.2 % m/m over the three previous summer months
  • On October 6, 2016, the Ukrainian Parliament extended the moratorium on farmland sales at least up to January of 2018, referring to lack of necessary legislative provision for a full-fledged land market.
Read more: Fixed Income Weekly (October 10, 2016)

ESCP Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly August 15, 2016

Eurobonds overview

Over the last week, prices of Ukraine’s short-term sovereign Eurobonds fell by an average of 0.3 cents, while long-term sovereign Eurobonds appreciated by an average of 0.35 cents. The short-term Ukraine-2019 and Ukraine-2020 issues were down by 0.45 and 0.35 cents respectively. Prices on Ukraine-2021 and Ukraine-2022 fell by 0.15 cents. Ukraine-2023 gained 0.15 cents, while Ukraine-2024 added 0.1 cents. Ukraine-2025, Ukraine-2026 and Ukraine-2027 all added 0.35 cents. On average, short-term issues (due in 2019-2024) traded with a yield of 9.0%, while long-term issues (due in 2025-2027) traded with a yield of 8.75%.

Among our top picks, indications on Ukrlandfarming-19 fell by 0.6 cents, while indications on Avangard-18 rose by 10.3 cents, albeit with no real trades going through. Quotes on Ukrainian Railways-2021 slid by 1.2 cents, while indications on Ferrexpo-2019 improved by 8.8 on the back of announced solid results. Quotes on Privatbank-18 improved by 5.2 cents, while Privatbank-21 added 13 cents.

Read more: ESCP Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly August 15, 2016