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Fixed Income Weekly (February 27, 2017)

 

Macro & politics update

  • A maintenance of the rail blockade against trade exchanges between mainland Ukraine and the separatist enclaves of the Donbas region, supported by some opposition lawmakers and military veterans, may compel the Central Bank to introduce anti-crisis measures, due to its negative impact on the country’s foreign exchange earnings, the NBU Head Valerya Gontareva said
  • Industrial production in Ukraine grew by 5.6% y/y (+5.2% y/y seasonally adjusted) in January 2017. Mining output marginally grew by 0.3% y/y during the month, whereas manufacturing production grew by 9.9% m/m. Energy generation and distribution reported a growth of 2.3% y/y
Read more: Fixed Income Weekly (February 27, 2017)

Fixed Income Weekly (February 14, 2017)

 

Macro & politics update

  • Ukraine’s GDP growth in 4Q2016 is estimated in the range of 4.5% to 4.8% in comparison with the fourth quarter of 2015, the Head of Ukraine’s State Statistics Service Ihor Verner reported at a session of the Government on February 8, 2017
  • Consumer prices increased by 1.1% m/m in January 2017. Additional inflation risks have emerged, driving the NBU inflation expectation outlook for 2017 to the level of 9.1%
  • Ukraine’s foreign reserves contracted by 0.6% m/m in January 2017, and amounted to USD 15.4 bn by February 1, 2017
  • The issue of the next tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the EFF program to Ukraine has not been put on the agenda of the meetings of the IMF Executive Board for the period up to February 17, 2017. Ukraine’s PM expects the IMF Board’s resolution by end of February
  • The EU is considering the extension of the second tranche of the Macro-Financial Assistance to Ukraine in the amount of EUR 600 mn (USD 640 mn) in the forthcoming weeks
Read more: Fixed Income Weekly (February 14, 2017)

Fixed Income Weekly (February 07, 2017)

 

Macro & politics update

  • Ukraine’s current account deficit deteriorated to USD 3.4 bn in 2016. A contraction of merchandise exports (-5.2%) on background of revival of imports (+3.8%) above all conditioned the deficit, resulting in an expansion of the merchandise trade deficit by 96.6% to USD 6.8 bn. The yearly balance of payment marked a positive growth of 58.6% to reach USD 1.3 bn, thanks to strong inflow on the financial account. The net surplus on the financial account amounted to USD 4.6 bn in 2016
Read more: Fixed Income Weekly (February 07, 2017)

Fixed Income Weekly (January 30, 2017)

 

Macro & politics update

  • Industrial production increased by 4.5% y/y in December of 2016. On aggregate, industrial production increased by 2.4% y/y in 2016, the first time returning to the positive zone since 2012. Mining output declined by 0.3% y/y. Energy generation and distribution expanded by 2.6% y/y. Manufacturing led industrial growth, marking a 3.5% y/y increase
  • On January 26, 2017, the NBU Board decided to maintain its key policy rate at 14%, referring to inflation risks hampering the achievement of inflation targets in 2017-2018. The regulator upgraded the GDP projections for 2017 to 2.8%
Read more: Fixed Income Weekly (January 30, 2017)

Ukraine Markets Weekly (January 23, 2017)

 

Macro & politics update

  • Ukraine’s agricultural production increased by 6.1% in 2016, driven by 9.7% expansion in plant growing, on background of a contraction of animal breeding by 2.6%
  • Ukraine’s economy will grow by 1.9% in 2017, while expected to accelerate by 3.2% in 2018, according to the United Nations. Consumer prices are due to increase by 12.7% in 2017, slowing to 8.6% in 2018.
  • Ukraine’s economy has overcome the consequences of the protracted economic crisis. In opposition to the previous years, domestic investment and consumption, rather than external factors laid at the source of growth, according to the economic minister Stepan Kubiv
Read more: Ukraine Markets Weekly (January 23, 2017)