Looking back, 2015 was the turning point for Ukraine. It strengthened its military, increased transparency of government and accountability of elected officials, liberalized the natural gas market, started the process of deregulating the economy, rationalized taxes, and began to integrate with the EU. Not least, it secured more than USD 34 bn in aid through 2018. The economy troughed and inflation peaked.
Looking forward, the IFIs that have provided so much support to Ukraine are paying close attention and keen to get a “return” on their investments. Ukraine must, perhaps above all, make material progress on corruption, still endemic, though more visible. The economy is set to grow, lending should increase, and capital controls should soften. We believe that attractive opportunities exist in public and private equities.