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Ukraine Markets Daily (January 11, 2018)

Market news

  • Producers’ prices growth slowed down to 1.7% m/m in December, resulting in a 16.5% of annual growth in 2017

Market comment

The UX index increased by 4.8% yesterday and the PFTS index was up by 1.6% (in UAH terms). The WIG-Ukraine index decreased by 0.8%. On the interbank exchange market, the USD/UAH was up by 0.4% to UAH 28.34 (mid price), according to Thomson Reuters. The official exchange rate reported by the NBU was UAH 28.20

 

Producers’ prices growth slowed down to 1.7% m/m in December, resulting in a 16.5% of annual growth in 2017

In December 2017, manufacturer prices growth slowed down to 1.7% m/m from an increase of 1.8% m/m in November 2017, which resulted in producers’ prices annual growth of 16.5% during 2017, as reported by the State Statistic Service. Prices in mining industry increased by 2.9% m/m (+8.9% m/m in November 2017), in processing industry grew up by 1.2% m/m (+1.0% m/m). In the industries of food production, production of coke and refined products and metal production prices increased by 1.0% m/m (+1.1% m/m), 2.6% m/m (+1.9% m/m) and 0.5% m/m (+0.6% m/m) respectively. Prices in electricity and gas distribution grew up by 2.6% m/m (+0.8% m/m). Compared to December 2016, industrial prices increased by 16.5% y/y (+18.4% y/y in November 2017), particularly prices growth in mining industry slowed down to 30.4% y/y (+43.8% y/y in November 2017), in processing industry – to 18.5% y/y (+20.7% y/y), in food production - by 12.5% y/y (+13.5% y/y) and in metal production - to 26.9% y/y (+34.8% y/y). Meanwhile, prices growth in electricity and gas distribution industries and in coke and refined products production industries accelerated to 4.0% y/y (+1.0% y/y) and 43.0% y/y (+37.5% y/y), respectively.

Our view:

Producers’ prices growth in December 2017 was mainly driven by the inflation within the mining industry, especially in the metal ore mining industry (+4.6% m/m). Also, the prices growth rate was influenced by the price increase in electricity and gas distribution industries, particularly by the 2.8% growth of the electricity’s price. Despite the annual inflation rate decreased more than in a half from 35.7% in 2016 to 16.5% in 2017, it still remains at very high level.

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